Hydropolitical Analysis of the Qosh Tepa Project and Its Role in the National Development Strategy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Abstract

Background and Objective: As an upstream country in the Amu Darya basin, Afghanistan possesses significant hydropolitical potential; however, institutional weakness and the instability of water policies have limited the extent to which this potential has been mobilized in support of national development. The Qosh Tepa National Project, as one of the largest water-infrastructure schemes in the country, represents a strategic effort to transform latent hydropower into geopolitical and developmental leverage. The purpose of this study is to provide a hydro-political analysis of the Qosh Tepa Project and to explain its role within the policy of economic self-reliance and the national development strategy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

Method: The study adopts an analytical–explanatory approach. Data were collected through library sources, official documents, analytical reports, and scholarly articles, and were examined using a qualitative, theme-based method with an emphasis on the interlinkages among water resources, political power, and national development.

Findings/ Result: The results indicate that Qosh Tepa constitutes a turning point in Afghanistan’s transition from a “peripheral actor” to an “influential player” in the Amu Darya basin. By establishing physical control over part of the river flow, the project contributes to the redistribution of hydropower and alters downstream dependency patterns. Domestically, it forms the core of policies promoting economic self-reliance and food self-sufficiency, supporting economic revitalization through the restoration of agriculture in the north, the reduction of wheat-import dependence, and the creation of extensive employment opportunities. Politically, Qosh Tepa functions as a form of “symbolic state capital,” generating performance-based legitimacy for the Islamic Emirate through the demonstration of effective resource management.

Conclusion: The long-term success of the project depends on transitioning from hard hydro-hegemony to a cooperation-oriented model and institutionalizing water diplomacy with downstream states. The nexus between water control, economic development, and political authority suggests that Qosh Tepa may become a key pillar in shaping a new, development-oriented hydrological order in Afghanistan and Central Asia.